新能源投资周报：消息趋于平淡，基本面权重上升-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - Non - ferrous Metals: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - New Energy Metals: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply Side: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - Demand Side: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - Inventory Side: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - Investment View: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply Side: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - Demand Side: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - Inventory Side: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - Investment View: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply Side: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - Import Side: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - Demand Side: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - Inventory Side: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - Cost and Profit: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - Investment View: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].