国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and investment suggestions for multiple energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., with different futures showing various trends such as narrowing fluctuations, short - term weakness, and medium - term shocks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to take a long - short position strategy. This week, the price rose first and then fell. The supply is expected to increase marginally in September. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have declined [4][9]. - PTA: The unilateral price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, with limited downside space. After the Hengli Huizhou device stopped unexpectedly, it entered a de - stocking pattern. Attention should be paid to the long - PTA short - PX strategy for the November contract [10]. - MEG: It is in a unilateral volatile market. It is not advisable to chase long positions, and the valuation is high above 4550. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the port has entered a stock - building pattern [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The futures price has minor fluctuations, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The inventories of full - steel tire sample enterprises are at a low level, and the export volume is higher than the historical average. The capacity utilization rate in September is expected to increase [13][16]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it will follow the macro - sentiment and move within a range. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [18][20]. Asphalt - The asphalt market will have a narrow - range fluctuation. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. The weekly output has decreased, and the inventories of factories and social warehouses have also decreased [22][34]. LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The market price has slightly declined. The demand for PE is improving, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently. The inventory pressure is not significant [35][36]. PP - In the short term, it will move sideways, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The domestic PP market has continued to decline slightly. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is still weak, and the supply pressure will increase [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market will move sideways. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable. The near - month futures price has corrected due to the pressure of warehouse receipts and weak exports, but the domestic demand is stable [43][45]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the trading volume and open interest have also increased. The supply pressure persists, and the demand during the peak season is not strong [48][52]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The domestic float - glass raw - sheet price has remained stable, and the regional trading performance varies. Some manufacturers plan to slightly increase the price [53][54]. Methanol - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The port inventory has increased significantly. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, and the downward pressure is significant. In the medium term, the downside space is narrowing [57][60]. Urea - In the short term, it will move sideways. The corporate inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand trading is weak. The policy has uncertainties, and the medium - and long - term outlook is still weak [62][64]. Styrene - In the medium term, it is bearish. The anti - involution hype has ended, the inventory in East China ports has continued to increase, and the pressure on tank capacity in September is high. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamental is weak [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined slightly, and the market is stable. The device operation is normal, and the downstream demand is tepid [67][69]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The supply and demand remain loose, and it will have a weak - side fluctuation in the short term. The Saudi Aramco CP price in September has remained unchanged, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [72][77]. - Propylene: There is still support for the spot price, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [72]. PVC - The PVC market still has pressure. The spot market is weakly volatile, and the supply is at a high level. The demand for downstream products related to real estate is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [79]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It will have a narrow - range fluctuation and remains weak. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is weak in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is under pressure in a volatile market. The futures price has declined, and the freight rate index has also decreased [84].