国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to break through new highs, and silver is expected to reach its previous peak [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to the weakening US dollar [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][13]. - Lead prices are supported by inventory reduction [2][16]. - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][18]. - The center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to move up, while there may still be room for alumina prices to decline. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to outperform electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 785.12, with a daily increase of 0.24%, and the night - session closing price was 791.28, with a night - session increase of 0.90%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9386, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 9566.00, with a night - session increase of 1.93% [5]. - Macro and Industry News: There were multiple macro - level events, such as the US 7 - month core PCE price index rising to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact being controllable [9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [8]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,410, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 79680, with a night - session increase of 0.34%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,906, with a daily increase of 0.68% [10]. - Macro and Industry News: Macro - wise, the US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year. Micro - wise, the US government proposed to include copper in the list of critical minerals, and some companies had production - related news [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 1 [12]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22140, with a decrease of 0.14%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 2814, with an increase of 0.97%. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and other data [13]. - News: China's August official manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, and the US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [15]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16880, with a decrease of 0.18%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1997, with an increase of 0.45%. There were also changes in inventory and other data [16]. - News: The US 7 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission planned to promote capital market reform [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 278,650, with a daily increase of 2.19%, and the night - session closing price was 272,590, with a decrease of 1.17%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closing price was 34,825, with an increase of 0.91% [19]. - Macro and Industry News: There were multiple macro - level events, such as the US government's tariff - related rulings and China's regulatory policies [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20740, with a decrease of 10. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory data for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. - Comprehensive News: India's second - quarter GDP grew by 7.8% year - on - year, but faced tariff challenges [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and other data in the industrial chain [26]. - Macro and Industry News: There were news about Canada's potential nickel export restrictions, Indonesia's nickel - related production and policy news, and a Chinese steel mill's production adjustment [26][27][29]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [31].