市场暂无明确驱动，国际油价窄幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The market currently lacks a clear driving force, and international oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, industrial policies, geopolitics, and macro - finance influence the oil market, with the overall investment view being bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil production. Overall, there is an upward trend in production, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - Demand (Medium - Long Term): Different institutions have varying forecasts for global crude oil demand, with a neutral impact on the market [3]. - Inventory (Short Term): US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and refined oil inventories showed mixed trends, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term): OPEC+ plans to increase production, and India's procurement of Russian oil has decreased, with a bearish impact on the market [3]. - Geopolitical (Short Term): Tensions between the US and India, and the situation in Iran have increased market concerns about supply, having a bullish impact on the market [3]. - Macro - Finance (Short Term): EU - US trade policies and court rulings on US tariffs have a positive impact on the market [3]. - Investment View: The overall view is bullish, suggesting a long - only strategy for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - Prices: SC crude oil decreased by 1.70%, WTI crude oil increased by 0.38%, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.30%. Other refined oil products also showed different price changes [5]. - Inventory: US, European, and Singapore oil product inventories, as well as Chinese oil product inventories, showed different trends [5]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The number of futures warehouse receipts for various oil products increased to varying degrees [5]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [5]. - Refinery Operating Rates: Refinery operating rates in different regions showed different trends [5]. - Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production decreased slightly [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - Market Review: International oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. As of August 29, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil had different price changes [7]. - Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads: Month - to - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [10]. - Forward Curve: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24]. - Crack Spreads: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, while jet fuel crack spreads remained stable [28][37]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production - OPEC production increased in July, and non - OPEC countries' production also showed an upward trend [47][60]. - US weekly crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease [72]. - Inventory - US commercial inventories decreased, and Cushing inventories decreased [84]. - Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [93]. - Demand - In the US, gasoline implied demand increased slightly, and refinery operating rates declined from a high level [110]. - In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [120][129]. - Macro - Finance: The US dollar index fluctuated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [142]. - CFTC Positions: Speculative long positions in WTI crude oil increased [150].