市场流动性充裕，股指进一步上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market has ample liquidity, and stock index is expected to rise further. The economic situation shows certain resilience, with both supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improving, but the supply-demand gap is widening. Macro policies are generally favorable, including real estate policy relaxation and potential monetary policy adjustments. Overseas factors, such as Trump's actions regarding the Fed, also have a certain impact on the market [3]. - Investment strategy suggests taking a long position during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts to reduce position volatility and risk [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Economic and Corporate Earnings: The August 2025 manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4%, with both supply and demand indicators rising, indicating economic resilience. However, the supply-demand gap widened to 1.3 percentage points, and price indices have been rising for three consecutive months [3]. - Macro Policy: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, adjusting housing purchase restrictions,公积金, and credit policies, which is expected to boost the real estate market [3]. - Overseas Factors: Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office, and Cook sued Trump, which may affect the Fed's policy direction [3]. - Liquidity: As of August 28, the A-share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: The market has ample liquidity, and the macro news is generally positive. The strategy is to go long during market adjustments, with a preference for IF or IH contracts [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Broad - based Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 2.71% to 4496.8, the SSE 50 rose 1.63% to 2976.5, the CSI 500 rose 3.24% to 7043.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7438.7 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (12.4%), non - ferrous metals (7.2%), electronics (6.3%), comprehensive (5.9%), and power equipment (4%) led the gains, while textile and apparel (-2.9%), banking (-2.1%), transportation (-1.5%), light manufacturing (-1.3%), and building decoration (-0.9%) led the losses [7]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 36.32%, and the open interest increased by 5.85%. The trading volume of SSE 50 futures increased by 17.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.83%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures increased by 32.89%, and the open interest increased by 6.35%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures increased by 14.61%, and the open interest decreased by 0.77% [11]. - Contract Premium and Discount: As of August 29, the annualized premium of the current - month contract IF2509 was 3.65%, and the annualized discount of IC2509 was 11.63% [15]. - Cross - variety Spread: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 94% historical percentile, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 59.9% historical percentile [19]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Funding and Macro Liquidity: The central bank conducted 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 403.9 billion yuan. Next week, 2273.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature [27]. - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading: As of August 28, the A - share margin trading balance was 2236.54 billion yuan, an increase of 88.81 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.7% of the total market turnover, at the 99.5% percentile in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 3202.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - Macro Indicators: In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. Supply and demand indicators in the manufacturing sector improved, but the supply - demand gap widened [38][52]. - Real Estate: Shanghai relaxed real estate policies, which may stimulate the real estate market [3]. - Consumption: The growth rate of consumer goods retail sales in July 2025 was 3.7%, and different consumer sectors showed varying degrees of growth [48]. - Manufacturing: The growth rate of manufacturing investment in July 2025 was 6.2%, and different manufacturing sub - sectors had different performance [49]. - Infrastructure Investment: The growth rate of infrastructure investment in July 2025 was 7.3%, and different infrastructure sub - sectors had different growth rates [50]. - Corporate Earnings: The performance of different broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices in terms of net profit growth and ROE varied [57][58]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - Macro Policy Trends: Many important meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference, the Politburo Meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference, which have deployed economic work for the second half of the year and introduced policies to support consumption, investment, and the real economy [62][64]. - Policy Expectations: The government will continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and may introduce more policies to support the economy and the capital market [65]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In July 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 48%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 73,000. The PCE and CPI showed a slight increase [70][72][77]. - Trump's Actions: Trump has implemented a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the US and other countries, especially China [79][81].