商品震荡整理，棉市冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the cotton industry is "oscillation", suggesting that the short - term demand is average and the supply is loose, with the market likely to fluctuate within a range [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new - crop abundant harvest reality is being priced. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The inventory shows different trends in commercial and industrial aspects. The profit situation of spinning is poor, while the valuation is relatively low. Macro - policies have both positive and negative impacts. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish as the old - crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new - crop abundant harvest weak reality is being priced [3]. - Demand: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3]. - Inventory: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is depleting rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3]. - Base/Spread: Neutral. This week, the Zhengzhou cotton basis maintained an oscillation, with the Xinjiang double 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the Zhengzhou cotton September - January spread continued to strengthen [3]. - Profit: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton spread is running at a low level [3]. - Valuation: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, which is bullish for the far - month contracts. Internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3]. - Investment View: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3]. - Trading Strategy: For both unilateral and arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to watch include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. PART TWO: Cotton Fundamental Data Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The first - time survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton planting area is 4159.9 million mu, and that in Xinjiang is 3678.8 million mu, with year - on - year increases of 1.88% and 3.18% respectively [8][9]. - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationally and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10]. Mid - stream - Inventory: The finished - product inventory accumulation in mid - stream factories has slowed down. The inventory data of weaving mills and spinning mills are presented in the form of graphs [18]. - Factory Load: The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are declining [25]. - Spinning Mill Profit: Spinning mills are in a loss situation, as shown by the negative spinning immediate profit and low yarn - cotton spot spread [29]. Downstream - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high, as reflected by the inventory data of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size [34]. International Market - US Cotton Exports: The signing and shipment of US cotton exports are at the lowest level in the same period of history. Exports to different countries show different trends: exports to Pakistan are decreasing year - on - year and at a low level; exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year in terms of signing and shipment [41][50][56]. PART THREE: Cotton Capital - related Data - Zhengzhou Cotton Basis: It is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 shows relevant trends [63]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Spread: The September - January spread and January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of graphs [67]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Position: The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [69]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt: The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining [74]. - US Cotton Fund Position: Data on the net long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options, as well as the long - position ratios, are presented [82][84]. - US Cotton Month Spread: It shows a "Deep Contango" pattern [88].