国贸期货油脂周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Palm oil is neutral to bullish; soybean oil is neutral to bearish. The heavy rain in Malaysia in the next week may bring bullish weather speculation. The good rate of US soybeans has been further raised, and other fundamental changes are not significant. Indonesia's low inventory in June and the firm export price still support the international palm oil price. US soybean pod numbers are excellent, but the yield per unit is slightly lower than USDA's forecast. There is still an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed cannot temporarily supplement the rapeseed oil supply [5] - Demand: Neutral. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before. Countries such as Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are actively promoting biodiesel policies, which is the biggest driver for the tightening of oil and fat supply. There may be state reserves to digest the high - inventory demand [5] - Inventory: Neutral to bearish. The total domestic oil and fat inventory increased last week, which has a bearish expectation difference compared with the previous expectation of "inventory peaking and de - stocking", mainly affecting the basis and the spread between months to weaken [5] - Macro and Policy: Neutral to bullish. The previous expectations remain unchanged. The US has an interest - rate cut expectation, the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy is exhausted, there is an anti - dumping expectation for Canadian rapeseed, and the Indonesian government is determined to implement B50 but the progress is expected to be slow [5] - Investment Viewpoint: Long - term bullish, short - term correction. The global oil and fat inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decrease, and the biodiesel policies in producing areas and trade topics still have room for speculation, which will lift the price center of oil and fat in the long term. However, the short - term market shows a correction after the favorable factors are exhausted, and it is necessary to wait for a new round of bullish drivers. Short - selling is not recommended [5] - Trading Strategy: Call options. Unilateral: Buy on dips. Risk concerns: Crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances. Arbitrage: Go long on oil and short on meal in the far - month contracts. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts such as P9 - 1, Y9 - 1, OI9 - 1, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][10][12] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past, present, and future periods [19][21][23] - Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand: It shows the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [31][33][36] - Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand: It presents the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][42] - Indian Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: It includes the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [43][45][47] - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [49][51][53] - US Soybean Situation: It includes the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, good rate, flowering rate, and pod - setting rate in the US soybean - producing areas, as well as the export situation of the US and Brazil [61][64][73] - Canadian Rapeseed Situation: It presents the precipitation forecast, temperature distribution, soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and the export and domestic arrival situation of rapeseed [88][99][101] - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: It includes the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly production of soybean oil in domestic crushing plants, the daily trading volume of soybean oil, the weekly inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed oil [87][108][112]