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玻璃纯碱:交割接货意愿不足,碱玻承压向下
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:29

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: Bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution logic is becoming long - term, but the weak reality remains, and the market sentiment fluctuates sharply. The glass market has poor fundamentals and prices are under pressure. The soda ash market has a high supply, neutral demand, cost support, but large near - month inventory and delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. Daily output is stable this week, with the industry start - up rate slightly increasing, and supply may increase slightly next week [3] - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season [3] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory is being depleted, with enterprise inventory at 62.566 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decline of 1.63%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.31%. The inventory days are 26.7 days, 0.5 days less than the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis and the 09 - 01 spread both declined [3] - Valuation: Neutral. Current prices are mainly under pressure, but costs provide support [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Fundamentals are poor, and prices are under pressure [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Neutral. Supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week as previously shut - down enterprises resume production [4] - Demand: Neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, with an increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume, but terminal demand is difficult to improve, and there is still negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Neutral. Inventory decreased slightly, with total manufacturer inventory at 186750 tons, a decrease of 4330 tons from last Thursday, a decline of 2.27% [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward [4] - Valuation: Neutral. Futures prices adjusted downward, but costs provide support [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4] - Investment View: Neutral. The weak reality continues, inventory is high, and sentiment is volatile [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Cash - and - carry arbitrage; Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, prices were under pressure. The main contract closed at 1182 (+9), and the Shahe spot price was 1060 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1296 (-28), and the Shahe spot price was 1211 (+4) [12] Spread/Basis - Soda ash: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened [24] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 21st. The industry start - up rate was 75.68%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 21st. The industry capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, the same as on the 21st. Glass production profit fluctuated [27] - Demand: Under pressure in the off - season. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak, real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor, but inventory is being depleted [32] Soda Ash - Supply: Output decreased temporarily. This week, soda ash output was 719,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,300 tons, a decline of 6.78%. Alkali plant profit decreased [34][35] - Demand: Neutral. Overall demand is neutral, short - term direct demand is stable, and photovoltaic daily melting volume has rebounded, but terminal demand is poor, and there is still negative feedback pressure on prices. Inventory decreased slightly [38]