Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 20,580 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,950 yuan/ton [9] 2.宏观面 - In August, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [13][15] 3.供需情况 - As of August 28, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. In July, the monthly output of aluminum products was 216940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [19][23] 4.库存情况 - As of August 29, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,596 tons, an increase of 991 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 481,050 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.56%. As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 567,000 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous day [28] 5.宏观面、基本面分析 - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, alumina production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of alumina enterprises continued to rise. The import volume of bauxite increased rapidly month - on - month, approaching the high in April. The production of aluminum products decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production of aluminum alloy decreased month - on - month. The Shanghai aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years [36] 6.后市展望 - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37]
铝周报：沪铝或震荡运行-20250901
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:32