甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market presented a pattern of significant supply - side pressure, marginal improvement but insufficient resilience on the demand side, and weak cost support, resulting in overall market pressure [6][7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season for methanol is approaching, but currently, the downstream demand has not significantly increased. Most devices are still in a state of loss and low operation, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The market may still show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September, with port inventories expected to continue increasing and prices facing certain downward pressure [8]. - In the short term, the fundamentals of methanol still show strong supply and weak demand, and methanol prices are likely to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply pressure of methanol was prominent, and the methanol futures continued to decline. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,348 yuan/ton, a 1.55% drop from the previous week [6][13]. - In the spot market, the port methanol inventory increased significantly, and the port market was under pressure to decline. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,220 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,240 - 2,300 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price also decreased due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the impact of low - priced Xinjiang goods [13]. Methanol Fundamental Analysis Production - From August 22 - 28, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,918,285 tons, an increase of 24,290 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, a 1.29% increase from the previous week. The recovery volume was greater than the loss volume [15]. Downstream Demand - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry's starting rate increased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 61.94%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and formaldehyde decreased, while that of chlorides increased [18][19]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 333,400 tons, a 22,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 7.27% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 217,000 tons, a 9,600 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.64% increase [21]. - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,299,300 tons, a 223,300 - ton increase from the previous week, a 20.75% increase. Ports in different regions all had inventory accumulations [23]. Profit - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the theoretical profit of coal - based methanol production increased, while the profits of coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol production weakened. Gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 82.10 yuan/ton, a 44.54% increase from the previous week [25]. Methanol Trend Outlook Supply - This week, the resumption of domestic methanol devices may continue to exceed the number of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production this week will be about 1.9762 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.40%, an increase from last week [32]. Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's starting rate will continue to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; and the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase slightly [33][34]. Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. Port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [34]. - Overall, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains weak, and the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. In the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [34].