国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The steel industry lacks upward drivers, with near - term contracts converging towards weak spot prices. The eighth round of price hikes for coking coal and coke has been put on hold, and there are rumors of price cuts. For iron ore, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment cycle at high hot metal production levels provides price support [3][5][63][113] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - Supply: Iron ore production is stable around 240wt, with potential short - term declines due to the parade. Scrap steel consumption is at a high level year - on - year, and steel inventories are accumulating seasonally. Policy - related production cuts may have limited impact on total output [5] - Demand: Weekly production and sales data show a slight recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious. Some spot goods from previous basis trading are flowing back into the market. Export policies may face new tightening [5] - Inventory: Total inventory is at a low level, but the current high production may increase future inventory pressure. The rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis has recovered. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 120, up about 19 from the previous week [5] - Profit: Long - process steel mills still have profits, but they have been significantly compressed compared to early August. Electric furnace profits have also been compressed [5] - Valuation: Industry profits are compressed, and the futures price has returned to a neutral valuation range [5] - Macro and Policy: There is an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut in September, and China is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on production [5] - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Monitor the impact of the parade on production and market sentiment, and watch for potential mismatches during the peak seasons [5] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, stop losses on short - term long positions and wait and see. For arbitrage, there are no recommendations. For basis trading, take rolling profits on positive basis positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: Steel inventory accumulation is faster than the seasonal norm. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has declined [63] - Coking Coal Supply: There are more production cuts in domestic coal mines, Mongolian coal imports remain at a relatively high level, and overseas coal prices are falling [63] - Coke Supply: Environmental protection has led to a significant short - term reduction in coke production, but coking profits remain high [63] - Inventory: Downstream procurement has slowed down, and upstream production is still restricted before the parade. Overall, there is no obvious oversupply [63] - Basis/Spread: After the seventh round of coke price hikes, the warehouse receipt cost is 1645, and the port trade warehouse receipt cost is 1629. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost in Shanxi is around 1130, and that of Mongolian coal is around 1070, with near - term contracts almost at par [63] - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly decreased, while coking profits have increased [63] - Summary: Maintain a view of weakening oscillations. Pay attention to the steel inventory situation and wait for the first round of coke price cut news before evaluating long - position layouts [63] - Trading Strategy: Actively sell spot goods and adopt a high - short strategy in the futures market. For arbitrage, wait and see [63] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The average daily shipment has slightly increased, mainly due to the recovery of Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments. The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and the future arrival volume is expected to continue to decline [114] - Demand: Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profitability rate has declined. Iron ore inventory will transfer from ports to steel mills in September. Steel demand shows a slight recovery, mainly from building materials [114] - Inventory: Steel mills will continue to replenish inventory, and it is difficult for inventory to accumulate significantly at high hot metal production levels [114] - Profit: Steel mills' profits are still high, and hot metal production can remain at a high level in the short term [114] - Valuation: The valuation is relatively neutral at high hot metal production levels [114] - Summary: The black sector is oscillating. In September, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment will support iron ore prices. Pay attention to the impact of the SCO meeting and the parade on hot metal production [114] - Investment View: Bullish [114] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions. For arbitrage, wait and see [115]