原周报（LG）：原木期货11合约震荡运行-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the log market is "oscillation". The 11 - contract of log futures is expected to oscillate in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the log market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, trade profit, and valuation. It concludes that all these factors are currently neutral, and the log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range. The key influencing factor to watch is the domestic demand situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55% [3]. - Demand: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [3]. - Inventory: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40% [3]. - Trade Profit: After the increase in the overseas market quotation, the profit inversion situation of traders has intensified. As of August 29, 2025, the trader's profit was - 69 yuan/m³ [3]. - Valuation: The delivery cost range of the 11 - contract is between 820 - 840 yuan/m³, and the overall valuation level is neutral [3]. - Investment View: The log 11 - contract is expected to oscillate in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: /; Arbitrage: /; Risk to watch: Domestic demand situation [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: The 09 - contract showed weak performance, and the 11 - contract oscillated. Last week, the log futures contract converged towards the receiving price, and the overall price showed weak performance. The delivery volume of the 09 - contract was low, and the fluctuation during the delivery month is expected to be limited. For the 11 - contract, there are currently no major contradictions, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has not arrived. It is currently expected to be in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [6]. - Futures Position: As of August 29, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 18,930 lots, a 33.5% decrease from last week. The position of the main 2509 contract was 13,583 lots, a 13.5% increase from last week [11]. - Spot Price: As of August 29, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 740/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 730/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Log Import Volume: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.90%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.57%. In July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4581 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.35%. From January to July 2025, the total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 10.7066 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. In July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 1.3972 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04% and a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. From January to July 2025, the total radiata pine import volume was about 10.4161 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.25% [22]. - New Zealand Log Shipment and Delivery Volume: From August 25 - 31, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 12 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 5 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 63%. The total arrival volume was about 440,000 cubic meters, an increase of 156,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 55%. In terms of ports, 6 ships are expected to arrive at Shandong ports, with an arrival volume of about 212,000 cubic meters, accounting for 48%, and the arrival volume increased by 14% week - on - week. 5 ships are expected to arrive at Jiangsu ports, with an arrival volume of about 148,000 cubic meters, accounting for 34%, and the arrival volume increased by 131% week - on - week [25]. - Trade Profit: As of August 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was 116 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 815 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 69 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - Domestic Log Inventory: As of August 22, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week. The spruce/fir inventory was 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 994,995 cubic meters, an increase of 1.22% from last week [33]. - Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume: From August 18 - 24, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,500 cubic meters, a 1.90% increase from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,900 cubic meters, a 2.79% decrease from last week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,200 cubic meters, a 4.31% increase from last week [35]. - Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit: As of August 22, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was 1280 yuan/m³, an increase of 20 yuan/m³ week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week, and that in Jiangsu was - 20 yuan/m³, an increase of 4 yuan/m³ week - on - week [38].