纯苯、苯乙烯周报：纯苯延续弱势，供需基本面回归-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", with the expectation that styrene will be weak due to cost collapse [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple factors influence the pure benzene and styrene markets. Supply - side maintenance resumption exerts pressure, while demand shows mixed trends both domestically and overseas. Inventory levels fluctuate, and profit margins and valuations vary. Macro - policies have a positive impact, but overall, the styrene market is expected to be weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The spread between Asian styrene and naphtha is $340, and the spread between styrene and benzene is over $170. However, Asian non - integrated producers are still in the negative economic zone. Supply - side maintenance resumption pressures the market [3]. - Demand: Bearish. Port inventory accumulation weakens the spot benzene market's buying sentiment. Domestic demand remains stable due to new styrene production, while overseas demand declines due to low derivative operating rates [3]. - Inventory: Neutral. As of August 25, 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu is 179,000 tons, a 10.84% increase from the previous period. The commercial inventory is 84,000 tons, a 9.80% increase [3]. - Basis: Bearish. The styrene basis weakens, profit slightly expands, and subsequent pure benzene and styrene show inventory accumulation [3]. - Profit: Bullish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $340, and the spread between styrene and benzene is $170 [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Styrene plant supply recovery increases, compressing profits, with a neutral valuation [3]. - Macro - policy: Bullish. The Politburo meeting on August 29 put forward requirements for safety production and natural disaster prevention [3]. - Investment View: Oscillation. Styrene cost collapses, expected to be mainly weak [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see. Geopolitical risks should be monitored [3]. 3.2 Pure Benzene & Styrene Fundamental Overview - Crude Oil: Weakens as the peak season ends [5]. - Styrene: Integrated plant profits are still poor, and styrene arrivals at ports increase [13][25]. - Pure Benzene: Prices are weak, and demand continues to accumulate inventory [36]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - Styrene Downstream - ABS: Runs weakly, with stable production capacity utilization and production margins [51]. - Styrene Downstream - PS: Inventory rises, and profits are repaired [64]. - Styrene Downstream - EPS: Load increases, but margins decline [73]. - Pure Benzene - Aniline: Shows a simultaneous increase in volume and price [82]. - Phenol: Inventory rises [92]. - Adipic Acid: Production margins are low [103]. - Caprolactam: Prices are at a low level [114]. - Household Appliances: Export demand declines [123]. - Styrene Market: Asian styrene prices recover, but concerns about increased domestic production and low consumption pressure the market. Overseas demand continues to decline [128].