聚酯周报：芳烃需求转弱，供给逐步回归-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market's supply is increasing, and the overall expectation is bearish, with the market expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA device supply is gradually recovering, with increased supply from Huizhou, and the PTA basis is weakening. The spread between PX and naphtha is expanding, and the spread between PX and MX is rising [3] - Demand: The downstream load of polyester remains at around 88%, and the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The bottle - chip device maintenance is also recovering. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, polyester prices are performing well, especially for filaments. However, FDY production cuts are imminent [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory is declining, entering a destocking cycle, with a reduction of 20,000 tons this week [3] - Basis: The PTA basis is rapidly weakening, and the liquidity in the PTA market is becoming looser due to the return of South China devices [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is at $260, and the spread between PX and MX is expanding. The PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan and is contracting [3] - Valuation: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As the reforming devices gradually recover, the supply of aromatics is increasing [3] - Macro - policy: Positive influence from relevant political meetings [3] - Investment view: Market is expected to oscillate due to bearish market expectations and increased supply [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [3] PART TWO: Overview of Oil Product Fundamentals - Oil market news: On August 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. Indian refineries' September imports of Russian oil are expected to increase by 10% - 20% (150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day) compared to August. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have affected up to 17% of its refining capacity [7] - Gasoline market: In the peak season, gasoline inventory is decreasing. North American refinery loads are continuously rising. However, as the driving season is about to end, gasoline demand will enter the off - season, and it is difficult to form strong market expectations. The demand for reformate in gasoline blending is still much better than that for chemicals, and the demand for benzene, toluene, and MX at the terminal remains weak [24] PART THREE: Overview of Aromatics Fundamentals - Aromatics supply: The supply of PX is expected to recover. North American and Asian naphtha prices are weakening, and the spread between naphtha and Brent crude oil is narrowing. The premium between Asian 97RON premium gasoline and regular gasoline continues to rise, and the lower naphtha price has increased the profit margin of reforming devices [48] - Aromatics profit: The profit from selective disproportionation is declining. The spread between PX and mixed xylene has increased to $127/ton, still generating positive returns. The consumption in the gasoline blending industry remains low, while the output of traditional derivative industries remains stable [54] - Reforming device: Although the supply of naphtha has eased, the demand is expected to decline due to planned maintenance in the third quarter. The demand for PX remains healthy, and the spread between PX and naphtha has risen to $265. After the completion of planned maintenance, the supply of PX has increased [61] - Korean market: There are expectations of production cuts in Korean naphtha cracking devices, and the market is in a period of sentiment fermentation and waiting for news verification [70] PART FOUR: Overview of Polyester Fundamentals - Ethylene glycol: There are rumors of major reforms in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries. Korean naphtha cracking devices plan to cut production, causing a significant increase in olefin varieties. Overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, and the supply is expected to shrink, with a decrease in expected arrivals [82] - Gasoline: Gasoline profits are recovering, and the load of major refineries is rising [84] - Polyester: The supply side of bottle - chips is gradually recovering. Raw material prices are stable, and terminal demand is optimistic [90][100]