纸浆周报：纸浆期货震荡运行-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on pulp is "oscillation", with a trading strategy of "11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to rising foreign market quotes, low pulp futures valuation, and weak commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the US. Consecutive increases in foreign market quotes strongly support domestic pulp prices [4] - Demand: The monthly output of major finished paper increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills issued price increase letters, and the implementation remains to be confirmed [4] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2084,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%, showing a de - stocking trend [4] - Valuation: The basis of broad - leaf pulp strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures entered a low - valuation range [4] - Investment and Trading: The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and attention should be paid to commodity macro - sentiment [4] 3.2 PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Pulp futures fell with the commodity macro - sentiment last week, but the spot price only slightly declined, and the basis strengthened significantly. There is still an upward driving force after the second round of foreign market quote increase [7] - Spot: The price of broad - leaf pulp is stable, while the price of softwood pulp decreased. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star is 5700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen is 4980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu is 4150 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton [16] - Foreign Market Quotes: In August, Arauco's quote for softwood pulp Silver Star was $720/ton, and the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star decreased by 50% with a price of $520/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [21] - Total Holdings: As of August 29, 2025, the total holdings of pulp futures contracts were 360,884 lots, an 18.35% increase from the previous week; the holdings of the main pulp futures contract were 210,805 lots, a 13.86% increase from the previous week [22] 3.3 PART THREE: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease; the softwood pulp import volume was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [5] - Domestic Inventory: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities decreased. As of August 28, 2025, the port inventory was 2.084 million tons, a 2.25% decrease; the delivery warehouse inventory was 247,500 tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - Overseas Inventory: Pulp mill inventories increased, and European port inventories decreased. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [46] - Downstream Demand: - Prices: The prices of four major wood - pulp papers decreased. As of August 29, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4825 yuan/ton, a 3.4% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 6% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3930 yuan/ton, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease [51] - Output: In July 2025, the output of paper products increased month - on - month. The output of offset paper was 737,000 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase; the output of coated paper was 381,000 tons, a 4% month - on - month increase; the output of tissue paper was 786,000 tons, a 1% month - on - month increase; the output of white cardboard was 1.003 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase [56] - Inventory: The inventories of cultural and living papers decreased, while the inventory of white cardboard increased. As of July 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.73 million tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of coated paper was 1.178 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 390,000 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2781 million tons, a 4% month - on - month increase [61] - Offset Paper: As of August 29, 2025, the total offset paper inventory was 1.728 million tons, a 0.7% week - on - week increase; the output was 204,700 tons, a 3000 - ton week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 55.6%, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease; the production cost was 4885 yuan/ton, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the gross profit was - 42.74 yuan/ton, a 26.4 - yuan week - on - week increase [67][72][75] - International Demand: European pulp demand is recovering, while US demand is weakening. In July 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory were 27.2, a 1.3 decrease month - on - month; the available days of broad - leaf pulp inventory were 24.1, a 2.5 decrease month - on - month. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease; the inventory - to - sales ratio in June 2025 was 1.06, a 0.01 increase month - on - month [78] 3.4 PART FOUR: Pulp Futures Valuation - Basis and Spread: As of August 29, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian softwood pulp was - 38 yuan/ton, an 84 - yuan increase from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, a 104 - yuan increase from the previous week; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 378 yuan/ton, a 72 - yuan decrease from the previous week [88] - Import Profit: As of August 29, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 129 yuan/ton, a 76 - yuan decrease from the previous week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase from the previous week [92] - Needle - Broad Spread: As of August 29, 2025, the needle - broad spread in Shandong, China, was 1562 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase from the previous week; in July 2024, the needle - broad import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [94]