如何理解反内卷的经济逻辑：反内卷不仅仅是去产能

Economic Analysis - The internal tension between investment and consumption significantly impacts economic growth, with capital income concentrated among high-income groups and a low marginal propensity to consume, leading to an imbalance in China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) and declining capital return rates (r) approaching an "efficiency cliff" [3] - Empirical data indicates that the decline in investment efficiency in China is primarily due to consumption not keeping pace with supply expansion, particularly in the service sector, resulting in structural mismatches and excess investment [3] - The high proportion of capital income in the primary distribution squeezes residents' consumption capacity, while government spending focuses more on investment rather than improving living standards, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3] Investment and Consumption Dynamics - Investment creates new supply and directly drives economic growth, while consumption represents demand and is the source of corporate profits, indicating that sustainable growth relies on a balanced ratio of investment to consumption [7] - Since 2009, China's capital stock to GDP ratio has been rising, indicating that capital stock growth has consistently outpaced GDP growth, leading to declining investment efficiency [9] - The capital income share in China from 2010 to 2020 remained relatively stable, suggesting a notable decline in capital return rates, which could lead to a halt in investment-driven growth if it falls below a critical threshold [11] Structural Issues - The structural mismatch between investment and consumption exacerbates idle capacity, with fixed asset investment heavily skewed towards construction (approximately 70%) rather than manufacturing (about 15%), while service consumption remains significantly low [18] - The high capital income share in China (24.2% from 1992 to 2020) exceeds the U.S. average (23.4%), indicating a greater squeeze on non-capital income and thus lower overall consumption capacity [30] Long-term Solutions - Short-term solutions may involve eliminating inefficient capacity to improve capital return rates, but long-term sustainable growth requires addressing income distribution through labor rights and welfare spending [3] - The current "anti-involution" policy should focus on income distribution reform rather than merely replicating past capacity reduction experiences from 2016-2017 [3]