Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].
基本面高频数据跟踪：地产销售微幅回升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-09-01 05:47