对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，正套，PTA：多PTA空MEG，MEG：月差正套，多PTA空MEG

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Long PX and short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [6] - PTA: Unilateral price is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, focus on long PTA and short PX for the November contract [7] - MEG: Unilateral oscillating market, avoid chasing long positions, overvalued above 4550, long PTA and short MEG [8] 2. Core Views - PX prices fluctuated this week, with the decline faster and larger than expected due to the halt of the positive feedback of terminal fabric price increases. Asian PX operating rate changed little, and domestic supply is expected to increase marginally in September [6] - PTA prices also fluctuated this week, with the decline exceeding expectations because of concerns about the peak - season performance and slow recovery of polyester operating rate. PTA has shifted to a destocking pattern, and its basis and calendar spread are supported [7] - MEG is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with ports shifting to a stocking pattern. The 09 contract has limited support for the overall price, and the current polyester operating rate expectations are lowered [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Futures Prices: PX closed at 6878 with a - 0.12% change, PTA at 4784 (-0.17%), MEG at 4466 (0.02%), PF at 6500 (-0.40%), and SC at 485.2 (0.73%) [1] - Calendar Spreads: PX9 - 1 closed at - 108, down 156 from the previous day; PTA9 - 1 at - 62 (-6); MEG9 - 1 at - 37 (+4); PF9 - 1 at - 106 (-10); SC9 - 10 at - 8.2 (+0.5) [1] - Spot Prices: PX CFR China was 848.67 (unchanged), PTA in East China at 4740 (-35), MEG at 4534 (+9), naphtha MOPJ at 597.38 (+3.5), and Dated Brent at 67.85 (+0.4) [1] - Spot Processing Margins: PX - naphtha spread was 254.79 (-9), PTA processing margin at 221.67 (-29.59), staple fiber processing margin at 137.74 (-18.09), bottle - chip processing margin at - 51.65 (+38.94), and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread at - 6.01 (unchanged) [1] Market Dynamics - PX spot prices remained unchanged as there were no clear bullish or bearish drivers. The bearish sentiment in the crude oil market limited the increase in Asian PX prices due to concerns about potential consumer price inflation related to US tariff policies [1][2] - In the polyester industry, some polyester bottle - chip plants had restarted, shut down, or adjusted production in September. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 29th were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average [4][5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5]