粕类周报：供需缺口博弈，关注中美政策-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, the investment view for both soybean meal and rapeseed meal is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is complex, influenced by multiple factors such as US soybean production, domestic inventory, import policies, and feed demand. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and the key to future trends lies in Sino - US policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The USDA August report adjusted the US soybean yield and planting area, resulting in a tight supply - demand balance sheet for new - crop US soybeans in 2025/26. The domestic soybean arrival volume in September is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle. The supply - demand gap for soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies. The supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease under Sino - Canadian trade policies, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [3]. - Demand: Short - term high inventories of pigs and poultry support feed demand, but policy guidance to control pig inventory and weight may affect future pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume, and the peak season of aquaculture supports rapeseed meal demand. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption, and downstream transactions of soybean and rapeseed meal are cautious this week [3]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level, soybean meal inventory is rising (lower than the same period last year but still in a stockpiling cycle), and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing. Domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted but remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. - Basis/Spread: The basis is weak [3]. - Profit: Brazilian soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, while Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is good [3]. - Valuation: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal on the futures market are currently at a neutral valuation position [3]. - Macro and Policy: Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations on soybeans. China has started to release imported soybeans from reserves, and is expected to open up Australian rapeseed imports and actively apply for relevant GMOs [3]. - Investment View: For soybean meal, the M01 contract was weak this week due to Sino - US peace - talk expectations and reserve releases, but the tight supply - demand situation of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean futures market. The spread between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums has narrowed to a normal range, and it is expected that the decline of Brazilian soybeans' CNF premiums will be limited. With the support of import costs, the downside space of M01 is expected to be limited, and it is expected to move in an oscillating manner in the short term. The basis and spread trends depend on Sino - US policies. For rapeseed meal, with the absence of Canadian supply, domestic inventory is expected to decrease, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the supply. The RM01 contract is a off - season contract, and it is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will not be significant, and it will generally follow the oscillation of soybean meal, with attention paid to policy changes [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, and arbitrage is advised to wait and see. Risks to watch include policies and weather [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios: In August 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased. The report also shows the inventory - to - consumption ratios of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as global and Canadian rapeseed over the years [35][36][45]. - US Soybean Production and Sales: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is rising, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume data are provided, and this week's US soybean exports declined [47][51][63]. - Import and Cost: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed is good [70][74][77]. - Domestic Inventory and Transaction: Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, soybean meal is in a stockpiling cycle but lower than last year, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are increasing. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed has declined, and rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted. The transaction volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up volume is high, while the transaction volume of rapeseed meal is also presented [81][102][109]. - Feed and Livestock Farming: The monthly output of feed is shown, as well as the breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens. Pig prices are falling [116][118][122].