PP：短期震荡，中期趋势仍有压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-01 05:55

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The medium - term trend of PP still faces pressure, and the short - term is in a volatile state [1]. - The short - term demand shows a month - on - month improvement, but the cost side remains weak. In the long - term, the pressure is still large [3]. 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6974, with a daily decline of 0.56%. The trading volume was 217,926, and the position change was 13,178 [2]. - Spread Data: The 01 - contract basis was - 144 yesterday, compared to - 170 the day before; the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 21 yesterday, compared to - 13 the day before [2]. - Spot Price: The spot price in North China was 6800 - 6980 yuan/ton yesterday (6860 - 7000 yuan/ton the day before), in East China was 6830 - 7000 yuan/ton yesterday (6850 - 7000 yuan/ton the day before), and in South China was 6800 - 7060 yuan/ton yesterday (6840 - 7040 yuan/ton the day before) [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of PP futures suppressed market confidence. The cost support weakened due to the price cut by upstream enterprises. The market had sufficient supply, and holders were eager to sell. However, downstream factories were cautious in stocking, mainly making low - price and rigid - demand purchases. The transaction center continued to decline, and although the low - price transactions improved slightly in the afternoon, the overall daily transaction was lower than the average level [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The short - term demand has improved month - on - month, but the cost side is still weak. The supply pressure will further increase as the maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity expands in the future. There is still great uncertainty in the cost side, and it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling at low levels. In the long - term, the pressure remains large [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish, and 2 represents the most bullish [4].