长江期货养殖产业月报-20250901

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For the hog industry: Near - term hog price rebounds are limited due to increased supply and high weights. Medium - and long - term prices will face pressure as sow inventory is abundant and production performance is improving, leading to increased supply before May next year [6][47][48]. - For the egg industry: Short - term egg price rebounds are suppressed by sufficient supply. In the long run, supply pressure remains, but the growth rate may slow down, and attention should be paid to the near - term culling situation [56][84][85]. - For the corn industry: In the short term, the connection between old and new crops and policy grain supply make corn supply sufficient, and the price may be under pressure. In the long term, the 25/26 corn production is expected to increase slightly, and the overall supply - demand is relatively stable, with the valuation under pressure [93][131]. Summary by Directory 1. Hog Industry Market Review - In August, the average national hog slaughter price was 13.54 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The main 11 - contract price closed at 13,555 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton (2.38% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was 95 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month [6]. Supply - Sow inventory is still at the upper limit of the equilibrium range, and production performance has improved, leading to an increase in new - born piglets. The supply of hogs in the third and fourth quarters will increase. As of August 29, the average monthly slaughter weight of national hogs was 127.86 kg, down 0.72 kg from last month [6][17][27]. Demand - In August, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 116,895 heads, up 7.04% from last month and 25.09% year - on - year. The monthly fresh - sales rate dropped to 86.92%. In September, demand will gradually increase, but the increment is limited [31][32]. Cost - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was - 7.85 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan/head. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 12.83 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets for 5 - month - old fattened hogs was 13.02 yuan/kg [6]. Policy - As of the week of August 22, the national hog - grain ratio was 5.89:1, breaking the 6:1 third - level warning value. On August 25, the central government started to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage, and the market expects a total of 50,000 tons [44]. Strategy - For the 11 and 01 contracts, short positions can be rolled for profit - taking. Wait for the rebound to add short positions at pressure levels. Pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on 05 and shorting on 03 [6]. 2. Egg Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, and the main contract closed at 3,484 yuan/500 kg, down 359 yuan/500 kg from the end of July [56]. Supply - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, a year - on - year increase. In September, the number of newly - opened laying hens will remain high, and the culling of laying hens is expected to increase [56][73]. Demand - Affected by the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg demand is expected to increase in early September but will decline significantly in mid - to late September. Egg substitution consumption has support [32][56]. Strategy - For the 10 and 11 contracts, take a short - biased approach to rebounds. For the 12 and 01 contracts, wait and see first. If the near - term culling does not accelerate significantly, wait for the rebound to conduct hedging [56]. 3. Corn Industry Market Review - As of August 29, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,290 yuan/ton, and the main 2511 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the end of July [93]. Supply - In September, new corn in some areas of Northeast China will be listed, and together with policy grain, the supply will be sufficient. In July, corn imports were 60,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease [93]. Demand - Hog and poultry inventories are at a high level, driving feed demand. However, the substitution of wheat for corn has increased, and the demand for deep - processed corn is limited [93]. Strategy - For the 11 contract, wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [93].