长江期货贵金属周报-20250901

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: September 1, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong - Industry: Precious Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices [6][9][11]. - The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, raising optimistic expectations for a trade agreement between the US and Europe [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide a stronger reason for the Fed to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, but the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is emerging, and Powell's dovish remarks have increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the prices of both US gold and silver to rebound [6][9]. - As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3516 per ounce, up 2.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3560, and the lower support level is $3450 [6]. - US silver had a weekly increase of 3.5%, closing at $40.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $38.9, and the upper resistance level is $41.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to rebound due to increased expectations of a September interest rate cut. The results of US trade negotiations have raised optimism about a US - Europe trade agreement [11]. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said that economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut interest rates [11]. - US tariff policies are basically finalized, and the market's concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US August non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [11]. - Strategy suggestion: Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 775 - 820 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, US Treasury yields, gold - silver ratio, yield spreads, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [15][16][18]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Economic Data - US July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations and the previous value [28]. - US July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the US was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [28]. - The revised annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the second quarter of the US was 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6% and in line with the previous value [28]. 3.5 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Fed Governor Cook sued, claiming that President Trump has no right to remove her from office, which may reshape the long - established norms of the Fed's independence. European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that the weakening of the Fed's independence will lead to rising inflation [29]. - The US July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to a 1.7% decline in the cost of gasoline and other energy commodities. Year - on - year, it increased by 2.6%, the same as in June. The core PCE price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the year - on - year growth accelerated to 2.9%, the highest level since February [29]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory increased by 11,260.73 kg to 1,210,730.26 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,169 kg to 39,624 kg [13]. - This week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 303,116.99 kg to 16,118,840.21 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 86,873 kg to 1,195,996 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 209,730 contracts, an increase of 7,860 contracts from last week [13][37]. - As of August 26, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 43,930 contracts, an increase of 705 contracts from last week [13][37]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Tuesday (September 2), at 22:00, the US August ISM manufacturing PMI will be released [39]. - On Thursday (September 4), at 20:15, the change in the US August ADP employment number will be released [39]. - On Friday (September 5), at 20:30, the seasonally adjusted change in the US August non - farm payrolls and the US August unemployment rate will be released [39].