有色金属基础周报：宏观影响反复，有色金属整体震荡偏强-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is mainly influenced by macro - factors, showing a high - level range - bound and strong trend. With the approaching of the peak season, the demand is expected to increase, and the copper price may have an upward space [3]. - The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, changes in alumina production capacity, and demand recovery. It is recommended to go long on aluminum at low prices and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. - The zinc market has sufficient supply and weak demand recovery. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The lead price is in a short - term weak and range - bound situation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [3]. - The nickel market is in a long - term supply surplus situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and conduct range trading for stainless steel [4]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak demand in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to supply and demand changes [4]. - The industrial silicon market has high risks before the release of the photovoltaic conference results. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream production reduction and downstream production scheduling [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - 8/25 - 8/31 Economic Data: The US economic data is mixed, with some indicators better than expected and some worse. For example, the US 7 - month Chicago Fed National Activity Index was - 0.19, worse than the forecast of - 0.11; the 7 - month durable goods orders had a month - on - month initial value of - 2.8%, better than the forecast of - 3.80% [11]. - Policies and Events: The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", aiming to promote the integration of AI in multiple fields. Trump removed the Fed governor, which may affect the Fed's independence [12][14]. - 9/1 - 9/7 Forecast Data: Forecasts for economic data such as China's and the euro - zone's PMIs, and US employment data are provided, but the actual values are not given [17]. 3.2 Copper - Price Trend: The copper price is in a high - level range - bound and strong trend, with a short - term operating range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic market supply has increased, while downstream replenishment is cautious. The apparent consumption shows the resilience of demand [3]. - Inventory: LME and US COMEX copper inventories are increasing, while the domestic inventory is relatively stable [3]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price Trend: The aluminum price is in a high - level range - bound and upward - trending state. The short - term operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 20,500 - 20,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased steadily. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [3]. 3.4 Zinc - Price Trend: The zinc price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is high. The downstream consumption recovery is not significant, and enterprises mainly make rigid purchases [3]. - Inventory: As of August 28, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons from August 21 [3]. 3.5 Lead - Price Trend: The lead price is in a short - term weak - range - bound state, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Demand: The LME and COMEX lead inventories have decreased, while the SHFE lead inventory has increased. The downstream lead consumption is insufficient, and the market is sensitive to price changes [3]. 3.6 Nickel - Price Trend: The nickel price is in a range - bound state in the short - term, with a reference operating range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel price is in a weak - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of nickel ore is relatively abundant, and the nickel market is in a surplus state. The demand for nickel iron has certain support, and the downstream of stainless steel mainly makes rigid purchases [4]. - Inventory: The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly [4]. 3.7 Tin - Price Trend: The tin price is in a range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [4]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover gradually [4]. - Inventory: The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventories are at a medium level and have increased [4]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price Trend: The industrial silicon price is in a wide - range - bound state, with a reference operating range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply and Demand: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the production of polysilicon has also increased. The production of organic silicon has decreased [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, while the three - port inventory has remained flat [4]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range - bound state, and it is recommended to trade carefully [4]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is affected by mining license issues, and the demand for energy storage terminals is good [4]. - Inventory: No specific inventory information is provided [4].