库存累库较多，考验旺季成色

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space is limited. The import is expected to continue to increase, while the downstream demand presents a mixed situation. The overall aluminum price is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, peak - season expectations, and capacity ceilings. It is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally, and it is better to enter the market to buy on dips. The strategy of going long on AD or going long on AD and short on AL is recommended [74]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In August, the overall trend of Shanghai aluminum was oscillating upward within a high - level range. In the early part of the month, factors such as weak US labor market data, dovish remarks from Fed officials, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, along with rumors of policy changes and strong export data, supported the price increase. However, factors like weak social financing data, inventory accumulation, and geopolitical events led to price corrections and oscillations. Towards the end of the month, dovish remarks from the Fed chairman and improved downstream demand expectations drove the price up [6]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Overseas Macro Indicators: The Fed has a series of interest - rate adjustment histories, and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also had multiple interest - rate cuts. Macroeconomic indicators such as manufacturing PMIs in the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, and inflation indicators like PCE and HICP have fluctuated [12][14]. - Domestic Macro Indicators: Domestic GDP growth shows certain trends, and social financing scale and its components have different performances. The leverage ratios of different sectors also have their own characteristics. Manufacturing PMIs, exchange rates, inflation indicators (CPI, PPI), and foreign trade data all reflect the domestic economic situation. China's export and import data in July 2025 showed growth, but the export growth may slow down in September due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs [19][25]. 3.3. Aluminum Raw Materials - Domestic Bauxite: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Mining activities in Shanxi and Henan are restricted due to safety and environmental supervision, and prices are expected to remain high in September as domestic mine capacity is limited and imported ore supply is temporarily tightened [28]. - Imported Bauxite: In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite increased significantly. Guinea is the largest supplier. The price of Guinea's bauxite increased slightly in late August. The rainy season in Guinea and uncertainties in mine复产 have supported the ore price [31]. - Alumina: By the end of August, the built - in capacity and operating capacity of alumina increased. The domestic spot weighted index decreased. Newly - put - into - production capacities are gradually stabilizing. In September, although the output and inventory are increasing rapidly, the impact from the Guinea mine end will limit the downward space, and the price is expected to oscillate around the current level [34]. 3.4. Electrolytic Aluminum - Production Capacity: By the end of August, the built - in and operating capacities of electrolytic aluminum increased. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in September, but the incremental space within the year is limited [37]. - Import: In July 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum increased significantly. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs, the expansion of 232 tariffs, and the approaching domestic demand peak season, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase [40]. - Cost and Profit: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In August, the production cost decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable in September [42]. 3.5. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - Automobile: In July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles is high. In September, with the expansion of the trade - in policy and the peak production and sales season, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to increase [50]. - Real Estate: From January to July 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, and sales area all declined year - on - year, and the market is still weak despite policy efforts [53]. - Infrastructure: The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first seven months is fast, and grid investment has increased significantly. In September, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to be strongly boosted [56]. - Household Appliances: In July 2025, the production and export of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed different trends. In September, with the seasonal strength of production and sales and the expansion of the trade - in policy, the demand for aluminum in household appliances is expected to remain stable [59]. - Photovoltaic: In June 2025, the new - installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased significantly. After the end of the rush - installation period, the new - installed capacity is expected to remain low in September, and the demand for aluminum will also be low [62]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In July 2025, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. In September, due to the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US rush - import demand, aluminum product exports may decrease month - on - month [65]. 3.6. Inventory - The downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the overall inventory shows an accumulation trend [66]. 3.7. Aluminum Price Trend Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, and the import will supplement the domestic supply. The demand situation varies in different downstream industries. The cost is expected to remain stable. The aluminum price increase is mainly due to market expectations, and it is not recommended to chase the price unilaterally. Attention should be paid to inventory destocking [74].