长江证券碳酸锂周报：供需维持紧平衡，价格延续震荡-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns and license reviews, while demand is supported by increased production schedules in August. The market is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, with prices likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to trade cautiously and keep an eye on upstream production cuts and cathode material plant production schedules [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoint Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 88 tons to 20,350 tons, and July production increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for FY25. In July 2025, China imported 751,000 tons of lithium ore, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume from Australia was about 427,000 tons, a 67% month - on - month and 12.8% year - on - year increase. The import volume from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month to about 64,000 tons, and from Nigeria it increased by 47% month - on - month to 116,000 tons. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease, with 9,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some lithium carbonate manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5] Demand - In August, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% month - on - month and 44.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 23.2 GWh, a 4.7% month - on - month decrease but a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 127.2 GWh, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease but a 47.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 590 tons, market inventory decreased by 4,631 tons, and futures inventory increased by 4,897 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - Considering the supply side, with the Ningde Jianxiawo mine shutdown and the mine - right review in Yichun and Qinghai, the supply is affected. Although July domestic lithium carbonate production increased month - on - month and lithium concentrate imports also rose, lithium salt imports decreased. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. On the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increased in August. Due to the uncertainty of the mining license issue in Yichun, Jiangxi, and the frequent impact of mine - end production cuts on the overall supply, downstream purchases of lithium carbonate are relatively cautious. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material plant production schedules [6] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The content mainly presents various data charts related to lithium carbonate, including historical price trends, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average prices of lithium concentrate and related products, production and import volumes of lithium - related products, etc. These data cover different time periods from 2019 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the lithium carbonate market's historical and current situation [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28][29][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40][41][42][43][44][45][46]