国泰海通晨报-20250901

Group 1: Macro Research - The actual tariff collection intensity in the US in the first half of 2025 was lower than expected, leading to a moderate rise in inflation. The average import tax rate is expected to increase further in the second half of the year, which may accelerate the pace of price increases by companies [4][5][7] - If the average import tax rate rises by 10% within the year, inflation could push the PCE year-on-year growth to 3.1% and core PCE to 3.4% under stable demand conditions [4][5] Group 2: Strategy Research - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, driven by accelerated transformation, declining risk-free returns, and capital market reforms. The market is not expected to be limited to small-cap stocks, with mid-cap and low-priced blue-chip stocks likely to become significant contributors to the next phase of market growth [5][7][8] - The market's style conflict is not between value and growth, but rather between monopolistic-stable assets and transformative-growth assets, indicating a broader improvement in the investment logic in China [8][9] Group 3: Industry Research - Household and Personal Care - In the first half of 2025, the beauty and personal care sector saw revenue and net profit growth of 7.2% and 1.9% respectively, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [16][17] - The personal care segment experienced a revenue increase of 30.2% and a net profit increase of 6.9% in the first half of 2025, driven by product innovation and new channel development [17] - The cosmetics segment faced challenges with profit growth lagging behind revenue growth due to increased competition for online traffic and rising promotional costs [17] - The medical aesthetics segment showed stable growth in collagen materials, with leading companies maintaining a competitive edge [17] Group 4: Fund Holdings - The overall holdings in the beauty and personal care sector increased in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a long-term logic benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the emergence of high-growth stocks [18]