集运指数欧线周报（EC）：运价持续下跌，不断接近成本线-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating weakly", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillating weakly; arbitrage: 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation" [3] Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index has been continuously falling and is approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September FAK freight rate center in the market at 2000 - 2200. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the container ship order book has reached 10 million TEU. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, and the demand is also neutral. The OCEAN's September freight rate reduction rhythm has accelerated, which may put pressure on MSK to reduce prices to attract cargo. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the price of the 12 - contract is likely to show an oscillatingly weak operating trend [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rates: Bearish. The September prices of GEMINI, OA, PA, and MSC have all decreased, with the market FAK freight rate center in September at 2000 - 2200 [3] - Political and Economic Factors: Neutral. There are events such as the threat of revenge from the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, the extension of the exclusion list measures in the US - China trade investigation, the EU's proposed tariff on US goods, the container ship order book reaching 10 million TEU, and the US government's plan to expand national security tariffs [3] - Shipping Capacity Supply: Neutral. The subsequent shipping capacity deployment shows different levels in different months, and there is a transfer of ships from the US line to the European line in September [3] - Demand: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and the OA alliance's loading rate has a relatively large decline, resulting in a relatively large price reduction recently [3] - Summary and Strategy: The OCEAN's freight rate reduction may put pressure on MSK. In the short term, the freight rate may fall below 1300, and the 12 - contract price is likely to be oscillatingly weak. The trading strategy is unilateral oscillating weakness and 10 - 12 reverse spread rolling operation [3] Part Two: Price - Spot Market: The demand recovery is slow, the supply is high, a new alliance has been established, and the price is falling in the off - season [5] Part Two: Static Capacity - Order Volume: There are data on container ship order volumes in different loading capacities and time periods [15] - Delivery Volume: Data on container ship delivery volumes in different loading capacities and time periods are presented [18][20] - Future Delivery: Information on future container ship deliveries in different loading capacities, time periods, and quarterly seasonality is provided [24][26][27] - Shipbreaking Price: Data on shipbreaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and new - building prices, including indices and prices in different loading capacities, are shown [31][33] - Second - hand Ship Price: Information on second - hand container ship prices, including indices and prices of ships with different loading capacities and ages, is presented [37][39][41] - Existing Capacity: Data on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity in different loading capacities, the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and shipbreaking average age, are provided [46][49][53] Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - Ship Schedule: Data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances and shipping companies, are presented [60][61][63] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: Information on container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, as well as average speed and idle capacity, is provided [71][72][79]