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美国PCE指数符合预期,国内反内卷初现成效
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-01 06:57
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose and then fell, with both industrial and agricultural products weakening. The main reason for the decline from the high was the weak fundamentals and prominent supply - demand contradictions of most commodities, despite positive macro sentiment [4]. - The US economy showed resilience in 25Q2, with the revised real GDP seasonally - adjusted quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate up 0.3 percentage points to 3.3% and the year - on - year growth rate up 0.1 percentage points to 2.1%. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to make the contribution of private non - residential investment to real GDP year - on - year more prominent [4]. - US inflation pressure rebounded in July, with the core PCE year - on - year growth rate reaching 2.9%. The Fed needs to balance inflation control and employment market risks when considering interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a rate cut in September [4]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased again, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August dropped to 58.2, indicating weakened consumer confidence [4]. - Japan's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in August, and the year - on - year growth rate of commodity retail sales in July dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 0.2%, showing weak domestic demand [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly in August, indicating improved economic sentiment, but it has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. The service PMI index rebounded more significantly and remained above the boom - bust line. The capital market is expected to inject vitality into the service industry and the overall economy in the third quarter [4]. - The slight recovery of industrial enterprise profits in July in China was due to the governance of disorderly price competition and the reduction of operating costs. However, effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and enterprise revenue growth is declining [4]. - Commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the game between expectations and reality. They are supported by macro expectations but face pressure from weak real - world supply - demand contradictions, especially in the real estate chain and the crude - oil sector [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US GDP in 25Q2: The revised seasonally - adjusted quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate of real GDP was 3.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the initial value, and the year - on - year growth rate was 2.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. The contribution of private non - residential investment to real GDP year - on - year is expected to be more prominent [4][8]. - US PCE in July: The core PCE year - on - year growth rate reached 2.9%, mainly affected by rising service costs and tariff cost transmission. The Fed needs to balance inflation control and employment market risks when considering interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a rate cut in September [4][11]. - US Initial Jobless Claims and Consumer Confidence: The number of initial jobless claims decreased again, but the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August dropped to 58.2, the first decline in four months, indicating weakened consumer confidence [4][14]. - Japan's CPI and Retail Sales: Japan's Tokyo core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% in August. The year - on - year growth rate of commodity retail sales in July dropped by 1.7 percentage points to 0.2%, the lowest since March 2022, showing weak domestic demand [4][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - China's PMI in August: The manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly, with most sub - indicators improving, indicating improved economic sentiment. However, it has been in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. The service PMI index rebounded more significantly and remained above the boom - bust line, and the capital market is expected to inject vitality into the service industry and the overall economy in the third quarter [4][22]. - China's Industrial Enterprise Profits in July: The slight recovery was due to the governance of disorderly price competition and the reduction of operating costs. However, effective domestic demand is still insufficient, and enterprise revenue growth is declining [4][25]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial开工率: On August 29, the开工率 of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 70%, that of POY was 86%, and that of weaving was 62%. The national blast furnace开工率 (247) was 83.18% [32]. - Automobile Sales: From August 1 to 31, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile factory wholesale and retail were 2.8% and 9.2% respectively; from August 1 to 22, the year - on - year growth rates were 6.2% and 2.0% respectively [39]. - Agricultural Product Prices: On August 29, the price increase rates of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 kinds of key - monitored fruits were 1.74%, 0.78%, and 0.67% respectively compared with the previous day, and 0.49% compared with the previous week [40].