股指面临调整，国债仍需等待

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - A-share market is in an upward cycle in the long - term, but there is short - term adjustment pressure due to technical overbought conditions and profit - taking needs [8] - Bond market is expected to face pressure in the short term, and the current economic improvement is not a trend reversal [9] - Overall economic data shows mixed performance, with some indicators like PMI, inflation, and investment showing weakness [13][16][22] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Strategy outlook: Buy on dips [7] - Stock index performance: Last week, A - share market showed a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and trading volume increasing. The performance of the ChiNext and STAR Market boosted market risk appetite [8] - Core view: Long - term upward cycle, but short - term adjustment pressure exists due to technical and profit - taking factors [8] - Technical analysis: The ratio of margin trading purchases to trading volume has reached a high level, and if it stabilizes above a certain threshold, a major bull market may be triggered [8] Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Treasury bond performance: Last week, the bond market was volatile, and the "watch - stocks - trade - bonds" sentiment weakened. Yield curve steepened, with short - term rates falling more [9] - Core view: Although some economic indicators improved, the current economic improvement is not a trend reversal, and the bond market faces short - term pressure [9] - Technical analysis: Treasury bond futures are in a bearish pattern with a downward trend [9] - Strategy outlook: Control portfolio duration, and trading positions should adopt short - term strategies [9] Key Data Tracking PMI - July manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than expected and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream industries improved, while downstream export - related industries were suppressed [13] Inflation - In a certain month, CPI was flat year - on - year and rose 0.4% month - on - month; PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. There were positive changes in prices, but overall CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16] Industrial Added Value - Industrial added value growth in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the service industry production index growth dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - related industries [19] Fixed Asset Investment - Estimated fixed asset investment growth in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment growth all declined. The reasons for the negative growth were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [22] Social Retail Sales - Social retail sales growth in a certain month fell to 3.7%, and the growth of retail sales above a certain limit fell to 2.8%. The slowdown was mainly due to weak catering, slow disbursement of national subsidies, and weak real - estate - related consumption [25] Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion, and new RMB loans were negative. Social financing, M1, and M2 growth improved with fiscal support. In the future, social financing growth may peak and fall, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28] Import and Export - In a certain month, exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. Import and export performance was better than expected due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs [31] Weekly Focus - A series of important economic indicators and events in the US and China from August 25th to August 31st are listed, including new home sales, durable goods orders, and industrial enterprise profits [33]