每周投资策略-20250901

Group 1: US Market Focus - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has increased following Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to a reassessment of "rate cut trades" in US equities [9][12][13] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in September [13][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zoom, ServiceNow, and other tech companies that are likely to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts [15][16] Group 2: Taiwan Market Focus - AI remains a significant growth driver for the semiconductor industry, with Taiwan's GDP growth in Q2 2025 exceeding expectations at 7.96% [21][24] - Taiwan's exports saw a substantial increase of 42% in July, driven by strong AI demand, which is expected to enhance the performance visibility of Taiwan's AI supply chain [24][28] - Recommended stocks include Wistron and Taisil, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI demand and supply chain improvements [28][31] Group 3: Malaysia Market Focus - Malaysia's economic growth is slowing, with a revised GDP growth forecast of 4.1% for 2025, influenced by a decrease in oil and gas production [36][41] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved asset quality and liquidity, with specific attention on CIMB and Hong Leong Bank [36][46] - The "export rush" effect is diminishing, with July exports showing a 6.8% increase, but future challenges may arise from potential high tariffs on semiconductor and electronic products [41][42]