美联储降息在即，沪铜或震荡偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [4][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In August, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from 77,950 yuan/ton to 79,840 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,575 - 9,914 US dollars/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Fed Rate Cut Imminent: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting on September 16 - 17, 2025, and expects further rate cuts in the next three to six months. As of August 29, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is 86.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 13.8% [2][12][33]. - Narrowed Decline in Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size: From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, with the decline narrowing. Profits in different industries showed different trends [14]. 3.3 Supply Side - Decrease in Refined Copper Production Month - on - Month: As of July 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14%. As of August 22, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 4.14 cents/pound, and the smelting fee was - 41.32 US dollars/kiloton [16]. - Reduction in the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Copper: As of August 29, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaom was 79,355 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the price difference was - 780 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Demand Side - Month - on - Month Decline in Copper Product Output: As of July 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 2025, the cumulative monthly investment in power grid construction was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [24]. 3.5 Inventory Side - Continuous Inventory Accumulation of COMEX Copper: As of August 29, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 79,748 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, an increase of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 8.26%. The COMEX copper inventory was 275,226 tons, an increase of 1,459 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Outlook - Analysis of Price Trend Factors: Key factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc. Among them, Chinese economic policies, US policies, and supply - side refined copper processing fees have a relatively large impact [32]. - Market Outlook: Considering various factors, copper prices may mainly show a volatile and slightly stronger market, with small price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for option contracts [34].