生猪周报：市场继续降重，猪价震荡偏弱-20250901

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, but pig prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. [1] - The fat - standard price difference is expected to strengthen, which may increase the willingness of farmers to fatten pigs. [1] Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - 主力合约基差情况: Due to the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On August 29, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 185 yuan/ton, compared with -70 yuan/ton on August 22. [2][3] - 各合约价格变化情况: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted. [4] - 月间价差变化: The monthly spreads fluctuated and adjusted. [7][10] 2. Spot End - 猪价与宰量: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices fluctuated weakly. [13] - 区域价差: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable. [15] - 肥标价差: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will increase the market's willingness to fatten pigs. [17] - 鲜销与毛白价差: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year. [19] - 相关产品比价与鲜冻价差: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products. [21] - 养殖利润: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red. [23] - 出栏体重: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether the negative cycle of "weak price → increased slaughter enthusiasm → weak price" will form. [25] 3. Capacity End - 能繁母猪存栏量: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year growth of 0.0%. Different data sources showed that the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase. [27] - 母猪淘汰情况: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average. [29] - 母猪生产效率与新生健仔数: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month. According to a 6 - month fattening period, the number of pigs to be slaughtered in January next year is expected to increase overall. [31] - 母猪、仔猪补栏积极性: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak. [33] 4. Slaughter End - 屠宰量与屠宰利润等: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative. [35] 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices. [38]