沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250901

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,410, up 480 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,061 lots, down 2,342; the open interest was 173,826 lots, up 4,829; the inventory was 21,412 tons, up 180 [2]. - London Copper: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,902, up 84 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 158,900 from the previous day [2]. - COMEX Copper: On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.5445, down 0.00 from the previous day; the total inventory was 275,226, up 3,121 [2]. Industry Information - Production and Supply: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Due to the impact of changes in waste copper collection, the supply of waste copper will significantly decrease in September, and the output of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from waste copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production will drop significantly by 5.25 tons in September and remain at a low level in October [2]. - Project Progress: The floating - ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale production [2]. Industry Operation - Copper Rod: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared with last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [2]. - Copper Wire and Cable: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased (increased) [2]. - Copper Enameled Wire: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper enameled wire decreased (dropped) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese enameled wire enterprises decreased (increased) [2]. - Copper Plate and Strip: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese copper plate and strip decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) [2]. - Copper Tube: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tubes may decrease month - on - month in September, as the total air - conditioning and heat - pump volume is expected to be lower than last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US [2]. Investment Strategy - Trading Suggestion: Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].