商品期货早班车-20250901
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-01 07:42
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation across different commodity sectors. Some sectors are influenced by factors such as policy changes, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - economic conditions. Investment strategies vary from sector to sector, including suggestions to buy, sell, or wait and see [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Prices rose last Friday due to the ongoing Trump - Fed officials' game. The US court's ruling on tariffs, PCE data, and Fed officials' statements affected the market. With the Fed's independence questioned and high probability of rate cuts, it is recommended to go long on gold. COMEX gold inventory increased by 6 tons to 1205 tons, and上期所黄金库存 increased by 2 tons to 39 tons [1] - Silver: Followed gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities. The global largest silver etf - iShares holding decreased by 22 tons to 15310 tons [1] Base Metals - Copper: The price was oscillating strongly. The weakening dollar index supported metal prices. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to continue oscillating. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is recovering, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is in a loose pattern, with rising warehouse receipts and falling overseas prices. Sellers of call options are recommended for those holding spot [2] - Industrial Silicon: The policy - expected trading sentiment cooled. The market is expected to oscillate weakly between 7600 - 9100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term sentiment cooled. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, buy on dips with a small position, or buy call options after volatility drops [3] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The impact of production - limit policies on contracts varies. It is necessary to focus on the implementation of production - limit and storage - collection plans [3] - Tin: The price rose and then fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading approach in the short term [3] Black Industry - Rebar: The market is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of rebar in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Supply - demand is marginally weakening. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of iron ore in the short term [5] - Coking Coal: Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of coking coal [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [6] - Corn: The futures are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [6] - Sugar: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production dominates. Domestically, the 01 contract may oscillate and rebound slightly, and then oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6][7] - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see, with an oscillating strategy between 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [7] - Log: The 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate around 800 yuan/cubic meter. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Palm Oil: In the short term, the oil market is weak, but in the medium - term, it is still bullish. It is necessary to focus on production areas' output and biodiesel policies [7] - Eggs: After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Hogs: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [7][8] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving [9] - PVC: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The supply is increasing, and the demand is about to enter the peak season [9] - PTA: Short - term supply tightens, but in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the processing margin of the far - month contract. The short - term PX accumulates inventory, and PTA reduces inventory [9] - Rubber: It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The inventory is decreasing, and the raw material support is strong [9][10] - Glass: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is seasonally decreasing [10] - PP: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply and demand are both increasing [10] - MEG: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, paying attention to peak - season orders. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [10] - Styrene: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or short - sell the profit. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand needs to be observed during the peak season [10][11] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is at a high level [11] - Caustic Soda: It is recommended to over - allocate. The demand is seasonally starting, and the inventory is decreasing [11]