尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: supply - side renovation of old - fashioned plants (old - fashioned plants over 20 years old account for about 20%, and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side improvement in exports, especially in September - October [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong closed at 1,746 yuan/ton on August 29, down 7 yuan or 0.40% from August 28; UR05 closed at 1,791 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.11%; UR09 closed at 1,679 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot Prices - In the domestic market, the prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 29 compared to August 28, except that the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton or 0.58% [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 38 yuan/ton or 0.73%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1,754 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,758 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,743 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,746 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,750 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 219,096 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1,746. It is recommended to buy on dips for the urea market in the future [1]