EASTERN SHENGHONG(SZ:000301) Xinda Securities·2025-09-01 07:53Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301) based on its performance and potential in the refining and chemical sectors [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.24%, despite a revenue decline of 16.36% to 60.916 billion yuan [1][2]. - The refining segment showed significant improvement, while the chemical fiber and chemical sectors faced challenges due to weak supply and demand dynamics [2]. - The average Brent crude oil price in the first half of 2025 was $71 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, impacting the overall profitability of the company [2]. - The company added 400,000 tons of EVA capacity, bringing total EVA capacity to 900,000 tons, enhancing its position in the new energy and materials sector [2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 60.916 billion yuan, with a net profit of 386 million yuan, and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.05 yuan, reflecting a 20% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 135.219 billion yuan, 140.893 billion yuan, and 144.029 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight decline in growth rates [3]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 864 million yuan, 1.112 billion yuan, and 1.586 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4]. Segment Performance - The refining segment achieved a net profit of 257 million yuan, while the chemical fiber and chemical segments reported net profits of 120 million yuan and 140 million yuan, respectively, showing mixed performance across segments [2]. - The gross margins for refining products, other petrochemicals, and polyester filament were 28.32%, 5.21%, and 7.43%, respectively, indicating varying profitability across different product lines [2]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with a projected slowdown in domestic refining capacity growth due to regulatory constraints [2]. - The company’s refining project has the largest single-unit capacity in the country, positioning it well to leverage synergies with its new materials business during industry recovery phases [2].