固定收益部市场日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, macroeconomic news, and company - specific analyses. It also offers insights into the Chinese economy and makes predictions on future policy adjustments [2][7][20] - In the fixed - income market, different bonds show various price changes, influenced by factors such as market sentiment, company performance, and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Regarding the Chinese economy, there are signs of mild reflation in upstream sectors, but the economic growth may face slowdown pressure in Q4 2025, which could lead to demand - side stimulus and supply - side capacity reduction policies [20][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, recent IG new issues were overall unchanged to 1bp wider. There were buying flows on HOKKEL 4.587 09/04/30 and two - way flows on OCBCSP 4.55 35s. Some bonds widened, tightened, or remained unchanged. In Chinese properties, some bonds were 0.1 - 0.6pt higher. There were selling flows on front - end Chinese banks/leasing names. Korean corps widened, and S&P changed SAMTOT rating outlook to negative. In Japan, there were selling flows on MUFG/NOMURA curves, and Japanese insurance hybrids edged up. In SEA, GLPSP bonds continued to grow [2] - This morning, there were selling flows for HSBC/MIZUHO/SUMIBK 5 - 6yr floaters. PTTGC 51 - 52s and TOPTB 49 were 0.7 - 2pts higher. FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 1.1pts lower. There were buyers for CNH short - term bonds in LGFVs, and ZHOSHK 28 was largely unchanged [4] 3.2 Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (-0.64%), Dow (-0.20%), and Nasdaq (-1.15%) were lower. The US Jul'25 Core PCE Price Index was +0.3% mom/+2.9% yoy, in line with market expectations. UST yield was lower while 10/30 yr UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.59%/3.68%/4.23%/4.92% [7] 3.3 Desk Analyst Comments - Fubon Life proposes to issue 10.25yr USD T2 bond. The fair value of the new FUBON is considered to be T + 95 - 100, adjusted for tenor and new issue premiums compared to its peers. Fubon Life's credit profile is slightly better than CATLIF in terms of profitability and capital strength [8][9][12] - ZHOSHK's credit profile remains solid. Despite the negative gross margin of new car sales in 1H25, it has consistent positive FCF generation, reducing debts, and low near - term refinancing pressure. The report maintains a buy on ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 [17][18] 3.4 China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI edged higher in August, with improvements in production and demand. There is mild reflation in upstream sectors due to the anti - involution campaign. Non - manufacturing PMI picked up as the service sector recovered, but construction extended its weakness. The economic growth may face slowdown pressure in Q4 2025, and the report expects a 10 bps LPR and 50 bps cut, along with possible transfer payment policies [20][21][23] 3.5 Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [25][26] 3.6 News and Market Color - Last Friday, 56 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB30bn. In Aug'25, 2,193 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,833bn, an 8.9% yoy decrease. There are also various company - specific news such as Alibaba's adjusted EBITDA fall, Bank of China's net interest income drop, etc. [27][31]