甲醇日评：回归偏弱基本面-20250901

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based methanol profit is still high, while the downstream profit in the inland area is poor, with room for repair, and the methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving force perspective, the return of inland and imported supplies exerts downward pressure on the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and there is little demand for further inventory building. It is highly likely that the port inventory will continue to accumulate, so the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Futures Prices: On August 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.51%) to 2361 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 2372 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-0.94%) to 2204 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, such as in Guangdong, which decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%) to 2245 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%) to 2105 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 4.50 yuan/ton to - 136 yuan/ton [1]. Raw Material Prices - Coal Prices: The prices of most coal varieties remained unchanged, except for Yulin Q6000, which decreased by 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 555 yuan/ton [1]. - Natural Gas Prices: The industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) to 422.60 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 462 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 35 yuan/ton (-9.51%) to 333 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 51.50 yuan/ton (19.80%) to - 208.57 yuan/ton. The profits of most downstream products such as acetic acid, MTBE, etc. increased [1]. Important Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2361 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 419,697 lots, and the open interest was 821,019 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating loads. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has increased to around 79%, and the daily output has continued to reach a high level [1]. Trading Strategy The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. Considering the valuation and driving factors, the upward driving force for methanol is not strong. However, it should be noted that this logic has been partially reflected in the market, and there is also an anti - involution expectation for chemical products [1].