创元期货日报-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Supported by biodiesel policies, oils and fats are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. In the short term, the market will return to a volatile trend. For oils and fats to rise again, new drivers are needed, specifically problems on the supply side; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weak. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [92]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of three major oils have risen alternately. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has fluctuated, affected by various factors such as USDA's yield and area adjustments, tariff policies, crude oil prices, and biodiesel policies [5][6]. 3.2 Soybean Oil - USDA's Adjustment of U.S. Soybean Planting Area: USDA unexpectedly and significantly reduced the estimated U.S. soybean planting area. The U.S. soybean balance sheet shows that the 2025 - 08 data has decreased compared to previous periods, and there is a possibility of further tightening of the balance sheet and lower inventories [9]. - Pro Farmer Field Inspection Results: The number of soybean pods in major producing states in 2025 shows a mixed trend compared to 2024, with some states having an increase and others a decrease. The estimated yield per acre of 53.6 bushels provides room for a downward adjustment [10]. - Soybean Growth Indicators: As of the week ending August 24, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, higher than expected. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought [20]. - SRE Announcement: On August 22, EPA announced the handling of 175 small refinery exemption (SRE) applications from 38 small refineries in the 2016 - 2024 compliance years. It is expected not to affect the demand for biofuels [22]. - South American Exports: Brazil's soybean exports in July were 12.2573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.95%. Argentina adjusted its soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal export tariffs [31][32]. - Domestic Situation in China: China's soybean imports in July were 11.666 million tons. The soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, and soybean oil was expected to continue to accumulate inventory. In late August, China exported soybean oil again, with an expected monthly average export volume of 3 - 50,000 tons from September to December [37][40]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysian Inventory and Production: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was slightly lower than expected, exports met expectations, and inventory was lower than expected. From August 1 - 25, 2025, production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 10.9%. Malaysia plans to replant palm trees [50]. - Indonesian Production and Policy: In June, Indonesia's palm oil production increased by 15.96% month - on - month, contrary to rumors. The government's crackdown on illegal palm plantations may affect future production. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 policy in 2026, but it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term [53][58]. - Indian Imports: India imported palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in July. It is rumored that India purchased palm oil from Latin America and imported rapeseed oil from the UAE. The Indian government may reduce the import tariff on rapeseed oil [66]. - Chinese Imports and Inventory: China's palm oil imports in July were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.57%. With the decline in imports, inventory is expected to peak and decline [76]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - Canadian Rapeseed Production: Canada's estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year, as the increase in yield per unit offsets the decline in area [86]. - Anti - Dumping Preliminary Ruling: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations into Canadian rapeseed, setting a 75.8% deposit ratio. This will increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed and tighten domestic rapeseed supply. China will purchase Australian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed imports will continue to tighten before the end of this year, accelerating the pace of rapeseed oil inventory reduction [89].