软商品日报：印度降雨或高于预期，棉花短期震荡-20250901

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Group 2: Core Views - The sugar consumption shows seasonal recovery driven by the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation. The sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the total annual imports are still expected to be within the anticipated range. Meanwhile, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production and requires continuous monitoring [1][2]. - Most cotton - growing regions in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and fiber - shedding stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][2]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - Spot Prices: The spot price of Nanning sugar is 5960.0 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar is 5825.0 yuan. The spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15250.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.05% from 3281 to 3280. The Nanning sugar price increased by 0.85% from 5910.0 to 5960.0, while the Kunming sugar price decreased by 0.09% from 5830.0 to 5825.0 [1][3]. - Futures Prices: The closing price of U.S. sugar is 16.34 with a change of 0.00%, and the closing price of U.S. cotton is 66.53 with a change of 0.00%. The prices of various sugar and cotton futures spreads and basis remained unchanged [1][3]. - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA increased by 0.64% from 78.2 to 78.7 [3]. 2. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 13916.0, a decrease of 4.29%, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 6514.0, a decrease of 3.07% [1][3]. 3. Profit and Option Information - The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1493.0. For options, the implied volatility of SR601C5600 is 0.0861, and that of CF601C14200 is 0.1234 [3].