从经济四周期配置大类资产9月篇：A股进入大牛市与10年周期律

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Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market enters a major bull market, with a 10-year cycle law evident in its operation, and the current bull market in the 2024 - 2025 period is a characteristic of the K-wave depression phase featuring science and technology innovation and AI [12]. - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter, and the stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect to boost residents' consumption ability and build a super-large Chinese market [3][15]. - Residents' savings are migrating to the stock market, and international funds will flow into Chinese assets due to the Fed's expected September interest rate cut [21][26]. - China's full AI transformation will make science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market [31]. - The bond market serves as ammunition for the stock market's rise, with bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [36]. - Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, while the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [41]. - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening [46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Cycles - The current Kitchin cycle is in an upward phase, with China's cycle expected to peak at the end of 2025 and the US in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase, expected to peak in early 2027 [8]. - The current Kuznets cycle in China is expected to bottom out around 2030 [9]. - The current K-wave depression phase started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery phase. China is the center of the current technological innovation cycle, and AI is the greatest technological innovation [10]. 2. A-share Market - A-share market has a 10-year cycle law, and the current bull market is in the main uptrend. The dominant styles are science and technology innovation and AI, and related indexes and their corresponding ETFs are expected to perform strongly [12][13]. 3. Economic Growth Driving Force - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, manufacturing and infrastructure investment slow down, and exports are expected to decelerate. Consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [15][17]. 4. Stock Market Wealth Effect - The stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect, boosting residents' consumption ability and building a super-large Chinese market. It also promotes the migration of residents' savings to the stock market, providing funds for technological innovation [19]. 5. Capital Flow - In July, residents' savings began to migrate to equity assets, and the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging. The real interest rate approaching zero will accelerate this migration [21][25]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, leading to a large-scale outflow of international funds from US stocks and bonds and an influx into Chinese assets, which will drive up the Chinese equity market [26][29]. 6. AI and Stock Market Style - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action indicates China's full AI transformation, making science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market, and AI ETFs are expected to perform well [31][35]. 7. Bond Market - The stock market's rise causes a large-scale transfer of funds from the bond market, and bond funds face continuous large-scale redemptions. Anti-involution leads to rising inflation and a real interest rate approaching zero, further reducing bond holdings [36][38]. 8. Commodities - Anti-involution mainly boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, has limited impact on upstream resources, and the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39][40]. 9. Gold - The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026, repeating the glory of the 1970s [41]. 10. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening, with a possible sharp appreciation to below 7 by the end of the year [46][49]. 11. Outlook for September of Various Asset Classes - Equity assets: A-share market enters a major bull market, with continuous capital inflows driving the market up, and the dominant style is AI + [50]. - Bond assets: Anti-involution leads to deflation exit, real interest rate approaching zero, the bond market serving as ammunition for the stock market's rise, and bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [50]. - Commodities: Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, with uncertain recovery strength after the Fed's interest rate cut [50]. - Gold assets: The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [50]. - Foreign exchange assets: Trade and capital are expected to have a double surplus, and the offshore RMB is expected to continue strengthening [50].