美元债双周报（25年第35周）：通胀韧性与就业转弱并存，美联储政策转向窗口开启-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - US inflation shows resilience while employment weakens, and the window for the Fed's policy shift has opened. The core PCE inflation in July rebounded to 2.9%, but the market still widely expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, emphasizing the risk of a weakening job market and hinting at a possible interest - rate cut in September, which significantly increased the market's expectation of a rate cut [2]. - The Trump administration's global tariff policy was ruled illegal, but it remains effective until October 14 while the government appeals to the Supreme Court, and the final result will affect trillions of dollars in trade [3]. - In the context of "tariff disturbances + the Fed turning dovish", US Treasury yields will oscillate at high levels with downward potential. It is recommended to maintain medium - to - short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation, and focus on investment - grade bonds in the credit bond market. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have allocation value [4]. Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents charts on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of US Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts of US Treasuries, and the implied interest - rate cut expectations in the federal funds rate futures market [12][13][21][23] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report includes charts on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [24][26][36][38][41][45][46] Exchange Rates - The report shows charts on the one - year trends and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year locked - in exchange cost of the US dollar against the RMB [49][50][56][58] Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The report provides charts on the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the returns in the past two weeks (by rating and industry), the net financing trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [62][64][66][67][71] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 9 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, 2 first - time ratings, and 3 rating downgrades, and specific information on each action is provided [74][75]