Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on dips as the peak season approaches [1] - PP: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation, short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish, but look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [3] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [3] Core Views - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are uncertain, causing price fluctuations. Focus on the break - even point of new U.S. shale oil wells around $60 [1][7]. - LPG: The cost side weakens, and LPG is under short - term pressure. It mainly follows the oil price, and the valuation is neutral [1][13]. - L: As the peak season in September approaches, supply and demand will turn strong. Plan to restart some devices, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Look for long opportunities on dips [1][19]. - PP: The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support. Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks [1][24]. - PVC: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain. Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1][28]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. Short - term PX is expected to be strong. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][31]. - PTA: The supply is under pressure due to device maintenance and new capacity release, but the demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. Look for long opportunities on dips [2][35]. - MEG: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Cautiously bullish, hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [2][38]. - Methanol: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating. The cost support weakens. Hold short positions at high levels and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2][41]. - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high. Cautiously bearish, hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2][46]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room to decline, the raw material supply is sufficient, and the spot price in Shandong is falling. The supply increases, and the demand decreases. Look for short opportunities with light positions [3]. - Glass: The supply - demand is loose, the enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, but the inventory of traders in Shahe is increasing. The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. Wait and see [3]. - Soda ash: The spot trading in Shahe is average, the price is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short on rallies [3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: On August 29, WTI decreased by 0.91%, Brent decreased by 0.74%, and SC increased by 0.37% [6]. - Fundamentals: In June, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high. As of August 29, the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased, and strategic reserves increased [8]. - Strategy: Lightly short. Focus on the $60 break - even point of new shale oil wells. For SC, focus on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - Market Review: On August 29, the PG main contract closed at 4366 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4481, and 4610 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price follows the oil price. As of August 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries decreased. The refinery inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [13]. - Strategy: Lightly short. For PG, focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/day. The spot price of Ningxia Coal in North China was 7190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [18]. - Fundamentals: The futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. As September approaches, the supply and demand will turn strong. Some devices plan to restart, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [19]. - Strategy: Look for long opportunities on dips. For L, focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [19]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6974 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/day. The spot price of East China drawstring was 6938 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1130 [23]. - Fundamentals: The warehouse receipts were cancelled at a high level, the futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support [24]. - Strategy: Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices. For PP, focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/day. The spot price in Changzhou was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [27]. - Fundamentals: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - Strategy: Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting. For V, focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [28]. PX - Market Review: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton (+8). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [31]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and overseas devices change little. The demand of PTA is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is high. The macro - environment is expected to be loose [31]. - Strategy: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. For PX511, focus on the range of [6840 - 6940] [32]. PTA - Market Review: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton (-8). The spot and basis weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [34]. - Fundamentals: The PTA processing fee is low, and many devices are under maintenance. The demand is improving, and the inventory is slightly reduced but still high. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously and look for buying opportunities on dips. For TA01, focus on the range of [4770 - 4830] [36]. MEG - Market Review: On August 29, the MEG spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton (+1). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [38]. - Fundamentals: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - Strategy: Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips. For EG01, focus on the range of [4440 - 4485] [39]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton (-12). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [40]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support weakens [41]. - Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels, sell call options for the 01 contract, and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract. For MA01, focus on the range of [2335 - 2375] [43]. Urea - Market Review: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (+10), and the main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton (-7). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [45]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high, and the cost support weakens [46]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2].
中辉能化观点-20250901
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:20