铅锌日评：区间整理-20250901

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices will maintain range - bound consolidation [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. Although overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, with Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, zinc prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead and Zinc Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,725 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 155 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; Shanghai lead futures active contract trading volume was 43,853 lots, up 28.41%; open interest was 49,182 lots, down 1.46% [1] - LME lead inventory was 261,050 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 57,325 tons, down 1.42% [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) closed at 1,991 US dollars/ton, up 0.38%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.48, down 0.55% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,940 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; Shanghai zinc futures active contract trading volume was 139,630 lots, down 10.73%; open interest was 116,592 lots, up 1.71% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 56,500 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 37,957 tons, up 5.33% [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, up 0.97%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.87, down 1.09% [1] 3.2 Industry News Lead - From August 22nd to August 28th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.33%, up 0.26 percentage points; that of recycled lead enterprises was 35.3%, down 4.1 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.59%, down 1.05 percentage points [1] - A Malaysian data center owner and North American AI giant N company will invest $2.36 billion to build an AI data center in Johor, and Coslight's VRLA battery system won the bid [1] Zinc - From August 22nd to August 28th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 55.47%, down 1.95 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 50.78%, up 0.32 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 51.69%, down 4.20 percentage points [1] - Last week, the inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 414,000 tons, up 25,500 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the increase in Fangchenggang inventory [1] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Lead - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some recycled lead refineries have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion [1] - Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not emerged. Dealers are mainly digesting inventory, and producers produce based on sales [1] Zinc - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, refineries mainly purchase domestic zinc ore, and the domestic TC in September may have limited growth [1] - Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increased output. Due to the off - season and environmental restrictions in the north, some downstream operations have weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1]