镍与不锈钢日评：宏观反复驱动不足-20250901

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250901: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 29, the nickel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel rose 1.04%. The spot market had good trading, and the premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals were loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was volatile. The nickel price was expected to oscillate within a range, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - On August 29, the stainless - steel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with decreased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The current macro sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals needed time and had cost support. The price was expected to fluctuate following the macro situation, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Market Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel: On August 29, the main contract's trading volume was 136,812 lots (+6,981), and the open interest was 89,621 lots (-2,584). The inventory decreased by 108 tons to 22,013 tons. The price of nickel futures contracts showed an upward trend [2]. - LME nickel: On August 29, the 3 - month nickel's official spot price was $15,190 (+$185), the electronic - trading closing price was $15,421 (+$158), and the trading volume was 7,266 lots (-2,656). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 201,564 tons to 0 tons [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore last week decreased, and port inventories increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, leading to inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary cathode material production increased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Market Data - On August 29, the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 109,373 lots (-12,493), and the open interest was 122,203 lots (-4,913). The SHFE inventory decreased by 659 tons to 99,772 tons [2]. Supply - Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. Demand - Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. Inventory - The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory in the previous week was 622,700 tons (-3,300) [2]. Other Data - National port nickel ore inventory: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 874 (in ten - thousand wet tons) on August 29, an increase of 54 compared to the previous week [2]. - Nickel inventory in different areas: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 4,700 tons. SMM pure - nickel social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons [2]. - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In August, 200 - series stainless - steel inventory was 191,600 tons (+2,400), 300 - series was 622,700 tons (-3,300), 400 - series was 117,300 tons (-2,300), and the total inventory was 926,900 tons (-3,200) [2].