贵金属日评：关税政策仍待美国最高法院裁决特朗普家族WLFI币9月1日交易-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and with Trump's continuous pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold's closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.84 yuan compared to the previous day and 6.36 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 27,326.00, a decrease of 4,610.00 compared to the previous day and 3,616.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,451.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 84.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 25.10 dollars compared to the previous week. The London gold spot price was 3,407.65 dollars/ounce, with a change of 31.30 dollars compared to the previous day and 63.00 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - Silver: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, with a change of -8.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 9.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 454,162.00, a decrease of 66,052.00 compared to the previous day and 45,116.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 39.71 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.82 dollars compared to the previous week. The London silver spot price was 38.22 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.72 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.86 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - US: The US appeal court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, but they remained in effect until the lawsuit was completed. The US January core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US July production - end inflation PFI annual rate and consumer - end inflation core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point might require policy adjustment, making the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September almost certain [1]. - Europe: The European Central Bank suspended rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone and German and French August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9, higher than expected and the previous value, so the European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - UK: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK July consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.8% (3.8%) and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The UK August SPCI manufacturing (service) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Japan: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, so the Bank of Japan still has the expectation of raising interest rates before the end of 2025, and the earliest time may be October [1]. Trading Strategy - Due to the Fed's possible rate cut in September, Trump's continuous pressure, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].