碳酸锂日评：波动仍大，持仓注意保护-20250901

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250901: High Volatility, Protect Positions [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On August 29, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the premium widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, the fundamentals changed little, and the market was still easily affected by news. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, protect positions by buying appropriate call options, or buy straddle options [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - Futures Prices: On August 29, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three contracts and other contracts decreased compared with August 28, with decreases ranging from $780 - 1140$ yuan/ton [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures was 490,058 hands (- 315,527), and the open interest of active contracts was 346,605 hands (- 458) [3]. - Inventory: The inventory was 29,887 tons, an increase of 930 tons compared with August 28 [3]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different contracts and different types of lithium products changed. For example, the spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - Raw Material Prices: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with increases of $5 - 150$ dollars/ton or yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Product Prices: The average prices of most lithium products decreased, such as battery - grade carbonate lithium (- 350 yuan/ton) and battery - grade hydroxide lithium (- 80 yuan/ton) [3]. 2. Industry News - IGO and Tianqi Lithium: After incurring a loss of AUD 955 million (equivalent to USD 622 million) in the fiscal year ending June 2025, Australian producer IGO is negotiating with Tianqi Lithium about the future of their 24,000 - ton/year hydroxide lithium refinery in Kwinana, Australia. The two companies stopped the proposed 24,000 - ton/year refinery expansion project in January. The joint venture plans to produce 9,000 - 11,000 tons of hydroxide lithium in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, higher than 6,782 tons in 2024 - 25 [3]. - Codelco and SQM: Chile's new economy minister Alvaro Garcia said that Codelco and local miner SQM are expected to finalize an important lithium cooperation agreement before the current government's term ends in 2026. The partnership will give Codelco majority control of SQM's lithium production business in the Atacama Salt Flats [3]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased slightly, and the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials changed little. The production capacity expansion of Greenbushes lithium spodumene concentrate is approaching completion, and the planned production in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than 1.48 million tons in the previous year [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of cobalt - acid lithium decreased, and the production of manganese - acid lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle sales continued, but the month - on - month sales declined. The 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]. 4. Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 29,887 tons (+ 930 tons), and social inventory was destocked. Refineries destocked, while downstream and other inventories were tight [3].