国内高频指标跟踪（2025年第35期）：人民币加速升值

Consumption Trends - Service consumption is experiencing seasonal cooling, particularly in travel, cinema, and tourism as summer ends[6] - Retail and wholesale volumes for automobiles have decreased, while agricultural product prices have shown seasonal recovery[6] Investment Insights - As of August 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.26 trillion, with August's issuance at CNY 486.5 billion, indicating insufficient support for infrastructure work[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities showed a slight seasonal increase, but overall market remains weak, with land transaction area declining and premium rates dropping to 4.07%[17] Trade and Production - Export volumes and prices are weakening, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.1% for outbound shipments[26] - Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, particularly PTA, which has dropped to its lowest level since 2021 due to production cuts[28] Inventory and Pricing - Coal, steel, and petrochemical inventories are rising, while cement inventory remains stable[32] - Consumer prices are mixed, with industrial prices generally declining; CPI growth is marginally decreasing, particularly in food and housing sectors[38] Currency and Liquidity - The RMB is appreciating rapidly, with the exchange rate against the USD falling from 7.1823 to 7.1330, influenced by central bank policies and market sentiment[42] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 5.6 basis points to 1.83%, while the one-year yield decreased slightly[39]