黄金月报：货币政策框架调整，9月降息板上钉钉-20250901

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].