Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Expected to trade in a range of [107, 108.5] for the T2512 contract. The reasons include the "stock - bond seesaw" effect leading to a rise in risk appetite, more redemptions of bond funds driving up interest rates, moderately loose monetary policy with the central bank maintaining neutral - to - loose liquidity, and the economic slowdown in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks. Key data to watch are the August economic data [7]. - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Forecasted to trade in a range of [102, 102.7] for the TS2512 contract. Logic involves improved liquidity with the central bank conducting outright reverse repurchase operations, the moderately loose monetary policy stance set by the Politburo meeting in July, and the "stock - bond seesaw" impact on risk appetite and bond fund redemptions. Data to focus on are central bank LPR rate changes, central bank monetary policy shifts, and August economic data [7]. - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Predicted to trade in a range of [104.6, 106.1] for the TF2512 contract. The factors are improved liquidity, the moderately loose monetary policy from the July Politburo meeting, and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. Key data includes central bank monetary policy operations, central bank LPR rate changes, and August economic data [12]. - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: Expected to trade in a range of [114, 118] for the TL2512 contract. Reasons are the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, moderately loose monetary policy, and the economic slowdown in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks. The key data to monitor is the August economic data [12]. Summary by Directory Economic Situation - Consumption: Short - term consumption declined slightly. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. Excluding automobiles, it was 3.4931 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase, and excluding automobiles, it was 25.7014 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase [23]. - Investment: Investment growth slowed. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28.8229 trillion yuan, a 1.6% year - on - year increase. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.5%. Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 3.2%, and real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a 12.0% decrease. In July, manufacturing investment growth dropped to 6.2%, a 1.3% decline from the previous month, and high - tech service industries also declined [23][27]. - Exports and Imports: In July 2025, China's total import and export value increased by 6.7% year - on - year, accelerating for two consecutive months. Exports in US dollars increased by 7.2%, and imports increased by 4.1%. Mechanical and electrical products' exports in the first seven months increased by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports. Integrated circuit exports increased by 29.2%, industrial robots by 62.2%, and automobile exports by 10.9%. The combined exports of new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products increased by 14.9% [41]. - Real Estate: In June, the real - estate investment growth rate continued to decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new housing construction area was 19.5%, with a slightly narrowed decline, and the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was 4%, with an expanded decline [43]. Inflation Indicators - CPI: In July 2025, the national consumer price index was flat year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from June. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, rising for three consecutive months and reaching a new high since March 2024. Food prices were a major drag, with a 1.6% year - on - year decrease in July, and service prices increased by 0.5% year - on - year, indicating strong summer consumption [49]. - PPI: In July 2025, the national producer price index for industrial products and purchase prices decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [48]. Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: The Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability. Monetary policy focused on structural tools to support scientific and technological innovation, small and micro - enterprises, and reduce social financing costs [47]. - Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy focused on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, improving capital efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [47]. Overseas Data - US Economy: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, a significant rebound from the first quarter. However, the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating a still low growth rate [45]. - US Inflation: In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. It increased by 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous 0.3%. Energy prices declined, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.2% month - on - month. Core commodity CPI reached a new high since June 2023, and core service inflation remained at 3.6% year - on - year [51]. - US Employment: In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000 and a nearly 50% decline from the initial June value. Historical data was revised downward significantly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021 [55]. - US PMI: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July slightly declined to 48%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity after the suspension of interest - rate cuts [57]. - Fed Monetary Policy: Market expectations suggest an 85% probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September, and a high probability of 2 - 3 interest - rate cuts within the year. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% [62][69]. Other Data - Interest Rates: The central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations improved market liquidity. The DR007 rate remained between 1.40% and 1.50%, and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates also remained low and stable [80]. - Exchange Rates: In August, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate (onshore) fluctuated around 7.17, and the US dollar index remained weak, fluctuating around 97 [83][84]. - Bond Yields: In August, the stock market performed well, driving up market risk appetite. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.85%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield was around 2.14% [88].
宏观国债月报：通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛盾-20250901
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-01 08:32